Quantifying barriers to decarbonization of the Russian economy: real options analysis of investment risks in low-carbon technologies     

Alexander Golub  Oleg Lugovoy  Vladimir Potashnikov 《Climate Policy》2019,19(6):716-724

Russia has significant potential for reducing its carbon emissions. However, investment in new low-carbon technologies has significant risks. Ambiguous energy and climate policy in Russia, along with deterioration of the country's investment climate, create investment barriers that are well described in qualitative terms in the literature. This paper attempts to provide a quantitative analysis of these barriers. For this numerical experiment, we apply the RU-TIMES model. Using a real options methodology, we estimate the risk-adjusted cost of capital in the Russian energy sector (including energy production and consumption technologies represented in the TIMES framework) to be approximately 43% (including a risk-free interest rate) and demonstrate the high risk of investment into energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies. Any future low-carbon emissions pathway depends on the ability of the Russian government to reduce climate and energy policy uncertainties, and to reduce financial risks through improvements of the general investment climate.

Key policy insights

• The high cost of capital investment into Russian energy production and consumption may prevent the adoption of new energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies.

• These investment risks, if not addressed, will delay Russia's low-carbon transition for the coming decades.

• Adopting a clear and unambiguous long-term climate and energy policy is important to reduce these risks and alleviate some of the barriers to the new technologies.

• The first step could be ratification of the Paris Agreement and adoption of a long-term emission target for the period up to 2050.

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Future global SLR network evolution and its impact on the terrestrial reference frame     

Alexander Kehm  Mathis Bloßfeld  Erricos C. Pavlis  Florian Seitz 《Journal of Geodesy》2018,92(6):625-635

Satellite laser ranging (SLR) is an important technique that contributes to the determination of terrestrial geodetic reference frames, especially to the realization of the origin and the scale of global networks. One of the major limiting factors of SLR-derived reference frame realizations is the datum accuracy which significantly suffers from the current global SLR station distribution. In this paper, the impact of a potential future development of the SLR network on the estimated datum parameters is investigated. The current status of the SLR network is compared to a simulated potential future network featuring additional stations improving the global network geometry. In addition, possible technical advancements resulting in a higher amount of observations are taken into account as well. As a result, we find that the network improvement causes a decrease in the scatter of the network translation parameters of up to 24%, and up to 20% for the scale, whereas the technological improvement causes a reduction in the scatter of up to 27% for the translations and up to 49% for the scale. The Earth orientation parameters benefit by up to 15% from both effects.  相似文献   

Surface Warping Incorporating Machine Learning Assisted Domain Likelihood Estimation: A New Paradigm in Mine Geology Modeling and Automation     

Leung  Raymond  Balamurali  Mehala  Lowe  Alexander 《Mathematical Geosciences》2022,54(3):533-572

Mathematical Geosciences - In surface mining, assay measurements taken from production drilling often provide useful information that enables initially inaccurate surfaces (for example,...  相似文献   

Phase equilibria in the KFeS<Subscript>2</Subscript>–Fe–S system at 300–600 °C and bartonite stability     

Valentin?O.?OsadchiiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Mikhail?V.?Voronin  Alexander?V.?Baranov 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(5):44

The article deals with phase relations in the KFeS₂–Fe–S system studied by the dry synthesis method in the range of 300–600 °C and at a pressure of 1 bar. At the temperature below 513?±?3 °C, pyrite coexists with rasvumite and there are pyrite–rasvumite–KFeS₂ and pyrite–rasvumite–pyrrhotite equilibria established. Above 513?±?3 °C pyrite and rasvumite react to form KFeS₂ and pyrrhotite, limiting the pyrite–rasvumite association to temperatures below this in nature. The experiments also outline the compositional stability range of the copper-free analog of murunskite (K _x Fe_2?yS₂) and suggest that mineral called bartonite is not stable in the Cl-free system, at least at atmospheric pressure and the temperature in the experiments. Chlorbartonite could be easily produced after adding KCl in the experiment. Possible parageneses in the quaternary K–Fe–S–Cl system were described based on the data obtained in this research and found in the previous studies. The factors affecting the formation of potassium–iron sulfides in nature were discussed.  相似文献   

Tsunami awareness: a comparative assessment between Japan and the USA     

Miguel Esteban  Jeremy Bricker  Ricardo San Carlos Arce  Hiroshi Takagi  NamYi Yun  Warathida Chaiyapa  Alexander Sjoegren  Tomoya Shibayama 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(3):1507-1528

Awareness about the threats posed by different types of coastal disasters has increased throughout the world, as people are exposed to the nature of these hazards through media reports on events in distant countries. This has resulted in coastal residents being aware about the destructive power of tsunamis, despite no such events having taken place in their country in recent times. Regardless of this increased awareness, it has been hypothesized that there is still need for local governments to enact adequate policies to raise the awareness of local residents, for example, by holding regular evacuation drills. The present research presents a comparative assessment of tsunami awareness in two tourist destinations in Japan and the USA, which was derived through structured questionnaire surveys of beach users in the city of Kamakura and various coastal cities in Florida. The results show how despite relatively high level of awareness tsunamis still pose a considerable risk to each of the communities, for example, due to shortcoming in evacuation knowledge and infrastructure.  相似文献   

Kimberlites distribution in Angola and prospective areas for new discoveries     

Ustinov  Victor N.  Feijo Bartolomeu  Ana M.  Zagainy  Alexander K.  Felix  Joao T.  Mikoev  Igor I.  Stegnitskiy  Yury B.  Lobkova  Ludmila P.  Kukui  Irina M.  Nikolaeva  Evelina V.  Antonov  Sergei A. 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,112(2):383-396

Based on a comprehensive analysis of kimberlite pipes of Angola, including the near surface structural setting, deep lithospheric structure, pipe morphology and emplacement, mineralogical and petrographic features, diamond characteristics and locations of secondary deposits four geographical regions have been outlined within Angola representing four types of diamond bearing potential. These areas include high diamond bearing potential pipes, possible potential, no potential, and unclear potential areas. It was found that the depth of magmatism and diamond potential of kimberlites increases from the Atlantic coast in southwestern Angola into the continent in the north-easterly direction. Areas prospective for the discovery of new primary diamond deposits have been identified.

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The upper Viséan–Serpukhovian in the type area for the Serpukhovian Stage (Moscow Basin,Russia): Part 1. Sequences,disconformities, and biostratigraphic summary     

Pavel B. Kabanov  Alexander S. Alekseev  Nilyufer B. Gibshman  Ruslan R. Gabdullin  Aleksei V. Bershov 《Geological Journal》2016,51(2):163-194

The upper Viséan–Serpukhovian strata in the type region for the Serpukhovian Stage is an epeiric‐sea succession ca. 90 m in thickness. The predominantly Viséan Oka Group (comprising the Aleksin, Mikhailov, and Venev formations) is dominated by photozoan packstones with fluvial siliciclastic wedges developed from the west. The Lower Serpukhovian Zaborie Group is composed of the Tarusa and Gurovo formations. The latter is a new name for the shale‐dominated unit of Steshevian Substage age in the studied area. The Zaborie Group is composed of limestones and marls in its lower (Tarusa and basal Gurovo) part and black smectitic to grey palygorskitic shales in the main part of the Gurovo Formation. The Gurovo Formation is capped by a thin limestone with oncoids and a palygorskitic–calcretic palaeosol. The Upper Serpukhovian is composed of a thin (3–12 m) Protva Limestone heavily karstified during a mid‐Carboniferous lowstand. The succession shows a number of unusual sedimentary features, such as a lack of high‐energy facies, shallow‐subtidal marine sediments penetrated by Stigmaria, the inferred atidal to microtidal regime, and palustrine beds composed of saponitic marls. The succession contains many subaerial disconformities characterized by profiles ranging from undercoal solution horizons to palaeokarsts. Incised fluvial channels are reported at two stratigraphic levels to the west of the study area. The deepest incisions developed from the Kholm Disconformity (top of the Mikhailov Formation). This disconformity also exhibits the deepest palaeokarst profile and represents the major hiatus in the Oka–Zaborie succession. The new sea‐level curve presented herein shows two major cycles separated by the Kholm Unconformity at the Mikhailov/Venev boundary. The Lower Serpukhovian transgression moved the base‐level away from falling below the seafloor so that the section becomes conformable above the Forino Disconformity (lower Tarusa). The maximum deepening is interpreted to occur in the lower dark‐shale part of the Gurovo Formation. The base of the Serpukhovian Stage is defined by FADs of the conodont Lochriea ziegleri and the foraminifer Janischewskina delicata in the middle of the sequence VN2. The Aleksinian–Mikhailovian interval is provisionally correlated with the Asbian (Lower–Middle Warnantian) in Western Europe. Based on FODs of Janischewskina typica and first representatives of Climacammina, the Venevian is correlated with the Brigantian in Western Europe. The Tarusian–Protvian interval contains diverse fusulinid and conodont assemblages, but few forms suitable for international correlation. FADs of the zonal conodont species Adetognathus unicornis and Gnathodus bollandensis at several metres above the Protvian base suggest correlation of the entire Zaborie Group and may be the basal Protvian to the Pendleian. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

An Exploration of Future Patterns of the Contributions to OpenStreetMap and Development of a Contribution Index   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

Jamal Jokar Arsanjani  Peter Mooney  Marco Helbich  Alexander Zipf 《Transactions in GIS》2015,19(6):896-914

OpenStreetMap (OSM) represents one of the most well‐known examples of a collaborative mapping project. Major research efforts have so far dealt with data quality analysis but the modality of OSM's evolution across space and time has barely been noted. This study aims to analyze spatio‐temporal patterns of contributions in OSM by proposing a contribution index (CI) in order to investigate the dynamism of OSM. The CI is based on a per cell analysis of the node quantity, interactivity, semantics, and attractivity (the ability to attract contributors). Additionally this research explores whether OSM has been constantly attracting new users and contributions or if OSM has experienced a decline in its ability to attract continued contributions. Using the Stuttgart region of Germany as a case study the empirical findings of the CI over time confirm that since 2007, OSM has been constantly attracting new users, who create new features, edit the existing spatial objects, and enrich them with attributes. This rate has been dramatically growing since 2011. The utilization of a Cellular Automata‐Markov (CA‐Markov) model provides evidence that by the end of 2016 and 2020, the rise of CI will spread out over the study area and only a few cells without OSM features will remain.  相似文献   

Land cover dynamics monitoring with Landsat data in Kunming,China: a cost-effective sampling and modelling scheme using Google Earth imagery and random forests     

Ning Lu  Alexander J. Hernandez  R. Douglas Ramsey 《国际地球制图》2015,30(2):186-201

Changes in forest composition impact ecological services, and are considered important factors driving global climate change. A hybrid sampling method along with a modelling approach to map current and past land cover in Kunming, China is reported. MODIS land cover (2001–2011) data-sets were used to detect pixels with no apparent change. Around 3000 ‘no change points’ were systematically selected and sampled using Google Earth’s high-resolution imagery. Thirty-five per cent of these points were verified and used for training and validation. We used Random forests to classify multi-temporal Landsat imagery. Results show that forest cover has had a net decrease of 14385?ha (1.3% of forest area), which was primary converted to shrublands (11%), urban and barren land (2.7%) and agriculture (2.5%). Our validation indicates an overall accuracy (Kappa) of 82%. Our methodology can be used to consistently map the dynamics of land cover change in similar areas with minimum costs.  相似文献   

Algal pigments in Arctic lake sediments record biogeochemical changes due to Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic global change     

Christopher R. Florian  Gifford H. Miller  Marilyn L. Fogel  Alexander P. Wolfe  Rolf D. Vinebrooke  Áslaug Geirsdóttir 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2015,54(1):53-69

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